I tend to shy away from predictions in an area as fluid as social media. The intertubes are filled with plenty of old pages proclaiming the eternal dominance of MySpace, the coming failure of Facebook, and a host of other predictions that have been laughably off the mark.
But I have had this nagging feeling in the back of my head for a few weeks that I think Twitter might be losing out to Facebook at long last.
Granted, this isn’t scientific at all, but a couple of anecdotal indicators on the ground.
First, I have a few friends who have been shutting down/tuning out Twitter. They’ve said they find it too hard to keep up. Others that the 140 character limit while fun at first has become cumbersome. Most of all, though, I’ve heard people say that they feel like they can get done what they used to do on Twitter better on Facebook (without such a hard character limit).
Second, I’ve noticed how one of our local news stations is no longer promoting Twitter like they used to. KOMO News is a local Seattle news outlet. For a couple of years now, they have been actively promoting the Chief Meteorologist, Steve Pool’s, Twitter handle and Facebook page. Lately though, their on-air promotion has stopped promoting Twitter and now only highlights Facebook.
Granted, this isn’t scientific. But I can’t help but have this sneaking suspicion that Facebook’s attempts to be a social media platform (as opposed to an application) is slowly succeeding. Why use Foursquare, Twitter, and IM when you can get it all done through Facebook? Their ability to unite multiple social actions into a single place has an advantage of simplicity.
Add to this that Facebook clearly has been able to develop a viable revenue model for their service while Twitter still seems to struggle in that arena. And finally, consider the fact that Twitter’s leadership seems to be in turmoil lately. Take all them together and this may be the window in which, when the history books are written, Twitter entered its decline and Facebook began to overcome it.
Again, we shall see. I refuse to call this a prediction. Let’s just call this an observation of a possibility.
This may be the time when Facebook started #winning.